Energy Transition and African Realities: Navigating Geopolitics and Priorities
All over the world, the conversations around energy have never been more critical. The world stands at a crossroads, and the need to change the global energy system is at the top of conversations even at the global conference on climate change, COP 28. Energy is a fundamental catalyst that powers the economy, and developed countries have mastered utilizing energy to affect their development significantly.
The world’s energy system mainly depends on fossil fuels, whose negative externalities, such as climate change, have become a serious global issue. The share of fossil fuels in the global energy supply has remained virtually unchanged at around 80 percent. According to the United Nations, fossil fuels – coal, oil, and gas – are the most significant contributors to global climate change, accounting for over 75 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions and nearly 90 percent of all carbon dioxide emissions. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), there is a need to reduce the utilization of fossil fuels to meet the Paris Agreement; otherwise, the changes we will experience in the climate system will be significant. Perhaps another issue with fossil fuels is that without sustainable use, we will exhaust the resources as it will take a geologic timescale to replenish them.
Against the backdrop of the climate crisis, there is a strong call for the world economy to transition to a low-carbon economy. The low carbon economy is characterized by renewable energy and efficient use of energy resources. This economy will be defined by sustainable utilization of resources and low carbon, which can support environmental, social, and economic sustainability.
Africa stands at a crossroads: to dance to the tunes of the global North or to take a decision towards liberation. This is not an easy decision; it may be a decision that decides the future of our world. It may determine whether the unborn generation has a planet where they can survive. Indeed, it could usher in the age of the Anthropocene.
Simon Stiell, the executive secretary of the UNFCCC, said famously at the opening ceremony of the COP28, “If the transition isn’t just, then we won’t transition at all. That means justice within and between countries”.
What exactly is the problem with just transition?
Source:https://transportgeography.org/contents/chapter4/transportation-and-energy/energy-systems-transition/
The world has undergone energy transition before, but it must be said it has never been at this scale or this fast, and usually to a primary energy resource with higher energy content. The different contexts of the countries mean that transition often occurs at their own pace. We now face a dilemma where our collective action requires keeping the global temperature below 1.5°C. It means we must transition at a fast rate and scale. So naturally, the pushback has been a phenomenon. The COP28 president was famously quoted as saying there is no science behind phasing out fossil fuels during the COP28. The Saudi Arabia Minister of Energy was quoted to have said phasing out of fossil fuel is out of the question. The top 100 energy companies in the world have an agenda against the phase-out of fossil fuels. The leaked communique by OPEC seems to mobilize members to resist the phase-out of fossil fuel as it will significantly cripple their income. The countries benefitting from fossil fuels are against its phase-out and want to control the narrative. Is the narrative about emissions or fossil fuel? The science is that there is no separation between the two, and the phase-out or phase-down of fossil fuel is necessary for climate action.
On September 6th, the African leader made the Nairobi declaration for a just transition, more financial commitment, and green industrialization. If COP 28 has highlighted anything, Africa is still catching up on geopolitics, and our leaders are more interested in the money. Will the money solve Africa’s problem or its judicious use? The carbon market narrative seems like a double-edged sword, and African leaders must be careful not to get their citizens cut.
The fact remains that 600 million in Sub-Saharan Africa (Minus South Africa) do not have access to energy, and the lack of stable power is a disaster for our economic development. Yes, the potential of renewable energy is enormous, but finance is not enough, and its limitations in dispatchability and storage are glaring. Africa needs stable energy for its development, and there is a need for a balanced narrative to the just transition story.
The COP28 again has pointed out that the global North has the pull-on politics, and African leaders can’t seem to push any unified agenda. The geopolitics will not get better, and the only way is for Africa to get better at playing it. Fundamentally, Africa must unite to demand that they utilize their resources for a more prosperous Africa. It is time for more collaboration between countries regarding funding and technology.
Nuclear energy
At the just concluded COP28, more than 20 countries have launched a declaration to triple nuclear energy by 2050. Nuclear power has surged to the top of world headlines at COP28 in Dubai, where leaders from 22 countries on four continents, including Africa, came together on December 2nd to announce a declaration to advance a global aspirational goal of tripling global nuclear energy capacity by 2050 to meet climate goals and energy needs. African countries have expressed interest in nuclear power, and it does provide baseload power and low emissions.
It is about to go down: fossil fuel.
As the debate on the phase-out of fossil fuel is raging at COP28, Nigeria, a prominent member of the OPEC, is celebrating the delivery of crude oil to the Dangote refinery, whose full operationality could potentially make the country a net exporter of petroleum. The expectation is that the oil and gas industry is about to boom in the nation.
The writing on the wall is simple. The world is not ready for the phase-out of fossil fuels. Its role in the global energy mix is significant.
So, what are the expectations?
The science is precise; the world must transition. So, the phase-down of fossil fuel should be on the table, and the world must move from a phase-down to a phase-out in sequence. In other words, an orderly phase-down and subsequent fossil fuel phase-out should be planned. This will not be a walk in the park; it must be done with intentionality and collaboration between the global North and South. The world must come together to support each other to make this transition. We need science and innovation to develop solutions that produce alternative energy sources at scale. The final text of the first global stocktake has asked nations to transition away from fossil fuels in global energy systems.
Whether we like it or not, investors want a return on investment, and right now, it seems to make sense to invest in fossil fuels. We must make it attractive to invest in renewable. Then, the transition will occur naturally. Until then, the commitment and policies must deliberately promote the 1.5 global temperature.
This is beyond the shareholder capitalism agenda of the top companies; this is a time to ask these companies to join us to save humanity. This is a time for action on corporate sustainability and net zero commitment. Creating value for all stakeholders means reducing fossil fuel investment and actively promoting renewables. That is the only path to a world where we can survive. Indeed, we don’t want to see how the Anthropocene is.
In conclusion, we have a fundamental problem. We want to transition at scale and to renewables, and there is no path that does not affect global energy systems and make everyone happy. The only way forward is together, a transition considering the unique context and allowing each country to transition at their own pace. A transition that will enable Nigeria to explore its transition fuels and the other African nations to do the same, but still offer us a path to address the climate crisis.
The conversations must begin at home. African leaders must engage with the private sector and control the energy narrative. Why not nuclear? Why not renewable? Why not gas? It should be about an energy mix that allows us to power to the next phase of industrialization. We have priorities: to leave a livable planet and, simultaneously, a continent that we can be proud to go to our children. It should not be the highway or low road. Many African countries, like Nigeria, have developed an energy transition plan, and Ghana recently released its own. It makes sense because the transition to a low-carbon economy cannot be sudden; thus, using low-emitting gas as a transition fuel offers a practical solution for all parties. But a country cannot claim to want to use gas and still be flaring gas, as it is still the norm in Nigeria. While the transition period is commendable, African leaders must be relentless in implementing the plan and charting a path to a more sustainable Africa and, by extension, the rest of the world.
Africa is still battling several developmental issues amidst the climate crisis. The continent has about 39% of renewable energy potential, which is critical in the energy transition. It is time for our leaders to do what they are elected to do: lead and chart a path for a more sustainable and prosperous continent.
